Obama Regains Popular Vote Lead on Surging Turnout in North Carolina and Indiana

Senator Barack Obama regained the popular vote lead in his sea-saw battle with former First Lady Senator Hillary Clinton. After handily winning North Carolina 875,988 (55.99%) to 652,994 (41.74%), and narrowly losing Indiana 629,310 (49.43%) to 643,797 (50.57%) Obama’s margin is now 141,661 out of a grand total of 16,403,787 (48.27%) to Clinton’s 16,262,126 (47.85%).

The big story in the May 6, 2008 primaries, however, is the surging turnout. The 33,984,989 votes cast so far in the Democratic presidential primaries is almost 2/3rds (65.89%) of the 51,576,761 votes cast for John Kerry in the 2004 General Election. After getting off to a roaring start in New Hampshire where the vote was 83.42% of the Kerry vote, the rest of the primaries went from a low of 23.98% in Hawaii to a high of 91.91% in Mississippi. The disputed state of Michigan was second lowest with 23.98% of Kerry’s vote and Florida, with 48.14%, was 9^th from the bottom, ahead of Delaware, Louisiana, Washington, Connecticut, New York, and New Mexico.

The first state to see its total Democratic primary turnout exceed 100% of Kerry’s 2004 vote was Texas with 102.76%. Now, both North Carolina with 102.54% and Indiana with 131.38% have joined Texas. Clearly, the voters in Indiana turned out to save Hillary Clinton’s campaign. In fact, the 1,273,107 Democratic primary votes cast in Indiana comes unbelievably close to the 1,479,438 votes Bush received to decisively beat Kerry in the 2004 General Election.

This is a clear sign that Indiana can be brought into the Democratic column in 2008, for the first time since 1964. The reason for this is the draconian photo voter identification law, recently upheld by the Supreme Court, that disenfranchised scores of people on primary day. While the record turnout belied the predictions of those who claimed the photo identification would discourage people from voting, it also proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the photo ID is a solution in search of a problem. Obviously, there had been little to no vote fraud under the previous system, when voter turnout was quanta lower. In elections where the eligible don’t vote, the ineligible don’t vote, either.

The bad news for Obama in the Indiana returns is that they show that Clinton brought out the voters. In the 12 lowest turnout counties (compared to Kerry’s 2004 vote) was Obama’s strength. In Monroe County, which Obama carried almost 2 to 1 (65.31%), the turnout was only 107% of Kerry’s 2004 vote. In Marion and Lake Counties, which Obama carried 66.91% and 56.49% respectively, the turnout was 112% and 114% of Kerry’s 2004 pace. In St. Joseph County, which Obama carried by 52.5%, turnout was 120% of Kerry’s vote. These four counties combined account for 40% of Obama’s vote in Indiana.

On the other hand, the small counties like Knox, Martin and Clay, which Clinton carried 2 to 1, saw turnout spikes of 171%, 173%, and 181% of Kerry’s 2004 vote. The message could not be clearer. It is not the margin by which Clinton carried Indiana that is significant, it is the fact that she was able to carry it at all. Clearly, only Clinton, with Obama as her running mate, stands a chance of carrying Indiana in the November election. Even worse, it shows that McCain will carry Indiana handily against Obama. According to the election results, rural America is not responding to Barack Obama.

In North Carolina, also, Clinton’s vote rose with turnout. North Carolinians cast 1,564,494 votes in the primary, 2.54%% higher than Kerry’s statewide total of 1,525,849. As in Indiana, Obama did better when the turnout was lower. Of Obama’s 222,994 margin over Clinton, 207,138 came from the 1/3^rd of the counties that had fewer Democratic primary votes than Kerry received in 2004. So, 520,162 (59.36%) of Obama’s vote and 313,024 (47.93%) of Clinton’s vote came from these low turnout counties.

In the 2/3rds of the counties where the Democratic primary vote exceeded Kerry’s 2004 General Election total, Obama received 356,064 to Clinton’s 340,329. In Indiana, all of the counties equaled or exceeded Kerry’s vote. Even though the primary turnout was historically high, the turnout in November will be double, at least.

Much was made before the primary of the fact that Indiana was an open primary, meaning any voter could vote in any primary; while North Carolina was a closed primary. The numbers tell an interesting tale. Even though North Carolina’s primary was closed, its 26.91% turnout in the Democratic primary was higher than Indiana’s 25.51%. So, the greater flexibility offered to voters did not result in a higher turnout.

More amazingly, even though John McCain is considered the presumptive Republican nominee, the Republican primary vote in both Indiana and North Carolina was an almost identical 24.38% and 24.48% respectively of the total primary vote. In other words, the idea that Republican voters in Indiana might be voting in the Democratic primary for tactical reasons to pick a weaker candidate for McCain is completely without foundation. The election returns show that voters take their votes deadly seriously and will only support candidates that they really favor. The electorate takes its votes more seriously than Supreme Court justices.

Indiana 2008 Primary Versus 2004 General Election Analysis

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Kerry,

Badnarik,

Bush,

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Hillary Clinton