Obama Regains Popular Vote Lead on Surging Turnout in North Carolina and Indiana

            Senator Barack Obama regained the popular vote lead in his sea-saw battle with former First Lady Senator Hillary Clinton.  After handily winning North Carolina 875,988 (55.99%) to 652,994 (41.74%), and narrowly losing Indiana 629,310 (49.43%) to 643,797 (50.57%) Obama’s margin is now 141,661 out of a grand total of 16,403,787 (48.27%) to Clinton’s 16,262,126 (47.85%).

            The big story in the May 6, 2008 primaries, however, is the surging turnout.  The 33,984,989 votes cast so far in the Democratic presidential primaries is almost 2/3rds (65.89%) of the 51,576,761 votes cast for John Kerry in the 2004 General Election.  After getting off to a roaring start in New Hampshire where the vote was 83.42% of the Kerry vote, the rest of the primaries went from a low of 23.98% in Hawaii to a high of 91.91% in Mississippi.  The disputed state of Michigan was second lowest with 23.98% of Kerry’s vote and Florida, with 48.14%, was 9th from the bottom, ahead of Delaware, Louisiana, Washington, Connecticut, New York, and New Mexico.

            The first state to see its total Democratic primary turnout exceed 100% of Kerry’s 2004 vote was Texas with 102.76%.  Now, both North Carolina with 102.54% and Indiana with 131.38% have joined Texas.  Clearly, the voters in Indiana turned out to save Hillary Clinton’s campaign.  In fact, the 1,273,107 Democratic primary votes cast in Indiana comes unbelievably close to the 1,479,438 votes Bush received to decisively beat Kerry in the 2004 General Election.

            This is a clear sign that Indiana can be brought into the Democratic column in 2008, for the first time since 1964.  The reason for this is the draconian photo voter identification law, recently upheld by the Supreme Court, that disenfranchised scores of people on primary day.  While the record turnout belied the predictions of those who claimed the photo identification would discourage people from voting, it also proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the photo ID is a solution in search of a problem.  Obviously, there had been little to no vote fraud under the previous system, when voter turnout was quanta lower.  In elections where the eligible don’t vote, the ineligible don’t vote, either.

            The bad news for Obama in the Indiana returns is that they show that Clinton brought out the voters.  In the 12 lowest turnout counties (compared to Kerry’s 2004 vote) was Obama’s strength.  In Monroe County, which Obama carried almost 2 to 1 (65.31%), the turnout was only 107% of Kerry’s 2004 vote.  In Marion and Lake Counties, which Obama carried 66.91% and 56.49% respectively, the turnout was 112% and 114% of Kerry’s 2004 pace.  In St. Joseph County, which Obama carried by 52.5%, turnout was 120% of Kerry’s vote.  These four counties combined account for 40% of Obama’s vote in Indiana.

            On the other hand, the small counties like Knox, Martin and Clay, which Clinton carried 2 to 1, saw turnout spikes of 171%, 173%, and 181% of Kerry’s 2004 vote.  The message could not be clearer.  It is not the margin by which Clinton carried Indiana that is significant, it is the fact that she was able to carry it at all.  Clearly, only Clinton, with Obama as her running mate, stands a chance of carrying Indiana in the November election.  Even worse, it shows that McCain will carry Indiana handily against Obama.  According to the election results, rural America is not responding to Barack Obama.

            In North Carolina, also, Clinton’s vote rose with turnout.  North Carolinians cast 1,564,494 votes in the primary, 2.54%% higher than Kerry’s statewide total of 1,525,849.  As in Indiana, Obama did better when the turnout was lower.  Of Obama’s 222,994 margin over Clinton, 207,138 came from the 1/3rd of the counties that had fewer Democratic primary votes than Kerry received in 2004.  So, 520,162 (59.36%) of Obama’s vote and 313,024 (47.93%) of Clinton’s vote came from these low turnout counties.

            In the 2/3rds of the counties where the Democratic primary vote exceeded Kerry’s 2004 General Election total, Obama received 356,064 to Clinton’s 340,329.  In Indiana, all of the counties equaled or exceeded Kerry’s vote.  Even though the primary turnout was historically high, the turnout in November will be double, at least.

            Much was made before the primary of the fact that Indiana was an open primary, meaning any voter could vote in any primary; while North Carolina was a closed primary. The numbers tell an interesting tale.  Even though North Carolina’s primary was closed, its 26.91% turnout in the Democratic primary was higher than Indiana’s 25.51%.  So, the greater flexibility offered to voters did not result in a higher turnout.

            More amazingly, even though John McCain is considered the presumptive Republican nominee, the Republican primary vote in both Indiana and North Carolina was an almost identical 24.38% and 24.48% respectively of the total primary vote.  In other words, the idea that Republican voters in Indiana might be voting in the Democratic primary for tactical reasons to pick a weaker candidate for McCain is completely without foundation.  The election returns show that voters take their votes deadly seriously and will only support candidates that they really favor.  The electorate takes its votes more seriously than Supreme Court justices.

Indiana 2008 Primary Versus 2004 General Election Analysis

Top of Form

County

Bottom of Form

Kerry,

Badnarik,

Bush,

Top of Form

County

Bottom of Form

Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama

John F. John Edwards

Michael Richard V. Campagna

George Walker Dick Cheney

(Democratic)

(Democratic)

(Democratic)

(Libertarian)

(Republican)

 

 

 

Total vote

Ratio to Kerry vote

% Obama

Total:

969011

18058

1479438

Total:

643797

629310

         1,273,107

     1.3138

49.43%

             14,487

Ohio

1139

23

1796

Ohio

857

279

                 1,136

          1.00

24.56%

Benton

1135

54

2797

Benton

625

557

                 1,182

          1.04

47.12%

Dearborn

6596

117

14231

Dearborn

5270

1780

                 7,050

          1.07

25.25%

Monroe

26965

449

22834

Monroe

10052

18921

               28,973

          1.07

65.31%

Wayne

10775

296

16586

Wayne

6997

4814

               11,811

          1.10

40.76%

Orange

2885

78

5683

Orange

2188

998

                 3,186

          1.10

31.32%

Lake

114743

1376

71903

Lake

56770

73693

             130,463

          1.14

56.49%

Union

1045

33

2266

Union

803

387

                 1,190

          1.14

32.52%

Warren

1356

39

2565

Warren

915

655

                 1,570

          1.16

41.72%

Marion

162249

2376

156072

Marion

62085

127799

             189,884

          1.17

67.30%

Newton

2032

55

3757

Newton

1590

847

                 2,437

          1.20

34.76%

St. Joseph

52637

659

55254

St. Joseph

30062

33227

               63,289

          1.20

52.50%

Randolph

3812

108

7172

Randolph

2846

1748

                 4,594

          1.21

38.05%

Boone

5636

192

17055

Boone

3249

3564

                 6,813

          1.21

52.31%

Jasper

3678

103

8056

Jasper

2913

1539

                 4,452

          1.21

34.57%

Spencer

3920

64

5934

Spencer

2928

1835

                 4,763

          1.22

38.53%

Porter

29388

671

34794

Porter

20759

15001

               35,760

          1.22

41.95%

Fountain

2477

67

5260

Fountain

1835

1204

                 3,039

          1.23

39.62%

Ripley

3510

90

8224

Ripley

2946

1375

                 4,321

          1.23

31.82%

La Porte

21114

552

20916

La Porte

13624

12537

               26,161

          1.24

47.92%

Wabash

3920

71

9607

Wabash

2769

2095

                 4,864

          1.24

43.07%

Steuben

4345

104

8433

Steuben

3096

2302

                 5,398

          1.24

42.65%

DeKalb

4810

106

10468

DeKalb

3427

2557

                 5,984

          1.24

42.73%

Starke

3987

100

4846

Starke

3581

1495

                 5,076

          1.27

29.45%

Clinton

3335

71

8471

Clinton

2562

1710

                 4,272

          1.28

40.03%

Franklin

2925

80

6977

Franklin

2594

1182

                 3,776

          1.29

31.30%

Miami

3886

118

9600

Miami

3152

1927

                 5,079

          1.31

37.94%

Lawrence

5346

145

12207

Lawrence

4637

2407

                 7,044

          1.32

34.17%

Switzerland

1479

31

2161

Switzerland

1464

486

                 1,950

          1.32

24.92%

Jefferson

5117

91

7763

Jefferson

4429

2332

                 6,761

          1.32

34.49%

Pulaski

1750

56

3797

Pulaski

1409

911

                 2,320

          1.33

39.27%

Jay

2740

59

5427

Jay

2256

1379

                 3,635

          1.33

37.94%

Marshall

5593

130

12074

Marshall

4267

3157

                 7,424

          1.33

42.52%

Fayette

3626

81

5761

Fayette

3267

1562

                 4,829

          1.33

32.35%

Allen

46710

728

82013

Allen

27493

35041

               62,534

          1.34

56.04%

Huntington

3877

120

11617

Huntington

2907

2286

                 5,193

          1.34

44.02%

Perry

4131

45

4137

Perry

3612

1986

                 5,598

          1.36

35.48%

Floyd

13857

156

19877

Floyd

12334

6452

               18,786

          1.36

34.34%

Delaware

20436

407

27064

Delaware

14743

12971

               27,714

          1.36

46.80%

Carroll

2689

78

5868

Carroll

2033

1625

                 3,658

          1.36

44.42%

Vanderburgh

28767

424

41463

Vanderburgh

20324

19031

               39,355

          1.37

48.36%

Decatur

2621

78

7499

Decatur

2326

1274

                 3,600

          1.37

35.39%

Madison

21882

444

32526

Madison

16888

13188

               30,076

          1.37

43.85%

LaGrange

2523

50

6430

LaGrange

1918

1559

                 3,477

          1.38

44.84%

Washington

3879

78

6915

Washington

4019

1330

                 5,349

          1.38

24.86%

Tippecanoe

20818

543

30897

Tippecanoe

11945

17004

               28,949

          1.39

58.74%

Grant

8509

165

18769

Grant

6362

5494

               11,856

          1.39

46.34%

Parke

2362

59

4550

Parke

2099

1194

                 3,293

          1.39

36.26%

Bartholomew

9191

207

19093

Bartholomew

6902

5989

               12,891

          1.40

46.46%

Montgomery

3536

96

10901

Montgomery

2534

2438

                 4,972

          1.41

49.03%

White

3277

96

6974

White

2551

2072

                 4,623

          1.41

44.82%

Fulton

2607

63

6027

Fulton

2164

1523

                 3,687

          1.41

41.31%

Howard

12998

275

23714

Howard

10361

8035

               18,396

          1.42

43.68%

Henry

7176

176

13137

Henry

6724

3493

               10,217

          1.42

34.19%

Noble

4703

110

10859

Noble

3974

2750

                 6,724

          1.43

40.90%

Tipton

2203

61

5628

Tipton

1848

1324

                 3,172

          1.44

41.74%

Vermillion

3424

56

3536

Vermillion

3261

1684

                 4,945

          1.44

34.05%

Greene

4606

131

8609

Greene

4326

2343

                 6,669

          1.45

35.13%

Owen

2536

68

5000

Owen

2215

1459

                 3,674

          1.45

39.71%

Whitley

3880

82

9512

Whitley

3336

2286

                 5,622

          1.45

40.66%

Wells

3112

72

9168

Wells

2613

1907

                 4,520

          1.45

42.19%

Kosciusko

5977

243

22136

Kosciusko

4528

4169

                 8,697

          1.46

47.94%

Brown

2730

84

4512

Brown

2009

1991

                 4,000

          1.47

49.78%

Pike

2418

49

3745

Pike

2467

1077

                 3,544

          1.47

30.39%

Hancock

6912

179

20771

Hancock

6105

4065

               10,170

          1.47

39.97%

Putnam

4103

116

8908

Putnam

3354

2691

                 6,045

          1.47

44.52%

Shelby

4519

111

11397

Shelby

4350

2321

                 6,671

          1.48

34.79%

Daviess

2573

80

7936

Daviess

2291

1554

                 3,845

          1.49

40.42%

Scott

3822

54

4793

Scott

4477

1245

                 5,722

          1.50

21.76%

Cass

4315

127

9480

Cass

3976

2513

                 6,489

          1.50

38.73%

Crawford

1932

33

2609

Crawford

2140

775

                 2,915

          1.51

26.59%

Vigo

18426

307

20988

Vigo

16506

11338

               27,844

          1.51

40.72%

Warrick

8980

108

16930

Warrick

8080

5500

               13,580

          1.51

40.50%

Elkhart

17966

363

42967

Elkhart

11180

16026

               27,206

          1.51

58.91%

Clark

17648

194

24495

Clark

18086

8707

               26,793

          1.52

32.50%

Jennings

3538

115

6864

Jennings

3620

1762

                 5,382

          1.52

32.74%

Gibson

5378

95

9133

Gibson

5524

2676

                 8,200

          1.52

32.63%

Harrison

6171

103

11015

Harrison

6826

2683

                 9,509

          1.54

28.22%

Morgan

6650

182

19197

Morgan

6517

3756

               10,273

          1.54

36.56%

Adams

3512

91

9734

Adams

3147

2283

                 5,430

          1.55

42.04%

Blackford

1903

30

3447

Blackford

1941

1024

                 2,965

          1.56

34.54%

Johnson

13109

316

37765

Johnson

11536

9188

               20,724

          1.58

44.34%

Hamilton

26388

608

77887

Hamilton

16491

25350

               41,841

          1.59

60.59%

Sullivan

3341

52

4999

Sullivan

3652

1796

                 5,448

          1.63

32.97%

Rush

2000

58

5363

Rush

1950

1330

                 3,280

          1.64

40.55%

Hendricks

13548

309

38430

Hendricks

11677

10913

               22,590

          1.67

48.31%

Posey

4085

68

7833

Posey

3845

2973

                 6,818

          1.67

43.61%

Knox

5649

104

9990

Knox

6407

3260

                 9,667

          1.71

33.72%

Jackson

5092

112

11083

Jackson

5904

2910

                 8,814

          1.73

33.02%

Martin

1522

58

3414

Martin

1692

943

                 2,635

          1.73

35.79%

Clay

3333

80

7361

Clay

4011

2028

                 6,039

          1.81

33.58%

Dubois

5210

116

11726

Dubois

5472

4463

                 9,935

          1.91

44.92%

 

State Democratic Primary Vote As A Percentage of Kerry’s 2004 vote

Primaries

 Clinton

 Obama

 Others

 Kerry Vote

Caucuses

NH- Dem

               112,215

               104,772

                 67,081

               340,511

83.42%

Iowa

NH Rep

                    1,743

                    1,800

                    1,080

Nevada

Michigan

               328,309

               238,168

                 27,931

           2,479,166

23.98%

Alaska

SC

               141,128

               295,091

                 96,008

               661,699

80.43%

Colorado

Alabama

               226,504

               302,814

                 10,703

               693,933

77.82%

Idaho

Florida

               857,208

               569,041

               299,015

           3,583,544

48.14%

Kansas

Ct.

               164,831

               179,349

                    6,328

               857,488

40.88%

Minn.

Arizona

               229,501

               193,126

                 29,260

               893,524

50.57%

ND

Arkansas

               217,313

                 80,774

                    8,117

               469,953

65.16%

Neb.

California

           2,421,995

           1,997,749

               258,044

           6,745,485

69.35%

Maine

Delaware

                 40,751

                 51,124

                    4,466

               200,152

48.13%

Wyoming

Georgia

               328,129

               700,366

                 26,336

           1,366,155

77.21%

Illinois

               662,845

           1,301,954

                 51,317

           2,891,550

69.72%

Mass.

               704,591

               511,887

                 30,293

           1,803,800

69.12%

Missouri

               395,287

               405,284

                 19,564

           1,259,171

65.13%

NJ

               602,576

               492,186

                 25,006

           1,911,430

58.58%

NM

                 73,105

                 71,396

                    4,239

               370,942

40.10%

NY

           1,003,623

               697,914

                 47,296

           4,314,280

40.54%

Ok.

               228,425

               130,087

                 54,682

               503,966

81.99%

Tenn.

               332,599

               250,730

                 32,271

           1,036,477

59.39%

Utah

                 48,719

                 70,373

                    5,147

               241,199

51.51%

La.

               136,959

               220,588

                 26,801

               820,299

46.85%

Wa.

               315,222

               353,563

                 21,481

           1,510,201

45.71%

DC

                 27,326

                 85,534

                       589

               202,970

55.89%

Maryland

               285,440

               464,474

                    8,869

           1,334,493

56.86%

Virginia

               347,579

               623,479

                    8,492

           1,454,742

67.33%

Hawaii

                    8,835

                 28,347

                       179

               231,708

16.12%

Wisconsin

               452,795

               646,007

                 11,624

           1,489,504

74.55%

Ohio

           1,207,806

               979,025

                 38,076

           2,741,167

81.17%

RI

               108,750

                 75,115

                    1,132

               259,760

71.22%

Texas

           1,478,434

           1,382,703

                 49,855

           2,832,704

102.76%

Vermont

                 59,640

                 91,740

                    2,962

               184,067

83.85%

Mississippi

               155,686

               255,809

                    9,256

               457,766

91.91%

Pennsylvania

           1,259,466

           1,046,120

                           -  

           2,938,095

78.47%

     2,305,586

NC

               652,994

               875,988

                 35,576

           1,525,849

102.54%

Indiana

               643,797

               629,310

               969,011

131.38%

#DIV/0!

         16,262,126

         16,403,787

           1,319,076

         51,576,761

65.89%

   33,984,989

47.85%

48.27%

3.88%

Difference

               141,661

 

North Carolina 2008 Primary Versus Kerry Vote in 2004 General Election Analysis

County

 Clinton

 Gravel

 Obama

 No Pref.

 Total

 Kerry

 Obama

Mitchell

               778

                9

               422

              14

           1,223

           2,080

58.80%

34.51%

Avery

               724

                7

               417

              13

           1,161

           1,805

64.32%

35.92%

Watauga

           3,645

              32

           4,570

              62

           8,309

         11,232

73.98%

55.00%

Yancey

           2,597

              38

           1,029

              96

           3,760

           4,434

84.80%

27.37%

Cherokee

           2,350

              36

               792

              46

           3,224

           3,635

88.69%

24.57%

Mecklenburg

         42,782

            354

      105,064

            688

      148,888

      166,828

89.25%

70.57%

Caldwell

           6,096

            139

           2,521

            217

           8,973

           9,999

89.74%

28.10%

Moore

           5,453

              98

           6,492

            174

         12,217

         13,555

90.13%

53.14%

New Hanover

         13,367

            200

         18,304

            363

         32,234

         35,572

90.62%

56.78%

Catawba

           9,746

            107

           7,251

            188

         17,292

         18,858

91.70%

41.93%

Polk

           1,871

              26

           1,548

              30

           3,475

           3,787

91.76%

44.55%

Randolph

           7,397

            158

           4,314

            206

         12,075

         12,966

93.13%

35.73%

Orange

         11,540

            249

         27,824

            363

         39,976

         42,910

93.16%

69.60%

Guilford

         28,127

            557

         64,041

        1,202

         93,927

      100,042

93.89%

68.18%

Sampson

           3,962

              43

           5,047

              87

           9,139

           9,649

94.71%

55.22%

Durham

         16,601

            250

         53,096

            711

         70,658

         74,524

94.81%

75.15%

Wake

         57,169

            608

      104,009

        1,150

      162,936

      169,909

95.90%

63.83%

Yadkin

           2,269

              38

               962

              49

           3,318

           3,451

96.15%

28.99%

Forsyth

         19,266

            251

         41,186

            407

         61,110

         63,340

96.48%

67.40%

Macon

           3,533

              61

           1,617

              96

           5,307

           5,489

96.68%

30.47%

Henderson

           8,394

              77

           5,913

            125

         14,509

         15,003

96.71%

40.75%

Transylvania

           3,138

              52

           2,656

              95

           5,941

           6,097

97.44%

44.71%

Graham

               960

              21

               220

              40

           1,241

           1,272

97.56%

17.73%

Clay

           1,157

              17

               399

              18

           1,591

           1,628

97.73%

25.08%

Wilkes

           5,515

              81

           1,987

            118

           7,701

           7,862

97.95%

25.80%

Rowan

           7,811

            177

           8,143

            298

         16,429

         16,735

98.17%

49.56%

Buncombe

         22,290

            321

         27,899

            523

         51,033

         51,868

98.39%

54.67%

Dare

           3,190

              83

           2,617

            173

           6,063

           6,136

98.81%

43.16%

Davidson

           9,602

            151

           7,077

            231

         17,061

         17,191

99.24%

41.48%

Alamance

           8,338

            214

         11,655

            375

         20,582

         20,686

99.50%

56.63%

Alexander

           3,356

              55

           1,090

              95

           4,596

           4,618

99.52%

23.72%

Stokes

           3,901

              65

           1,706

              96

           5,768

           5,767

100.02%

29.58%

Stanly

           4,732

            112

           2,747

            178

           7,769

           7,650

101.56%

35.36%

Swain

           1,718

              33

               630

              77

           2,458

           2,419

101.61%

25.63%

Madison

           2,761

              33

           1,463

              66

           4,323

           4,234

102.10%

33.84%

Pasquotank

           2,463

              59

           4,490

            144

           7,156

           6,984

102.46%

62.74%

Ashe

           3,476

              51

           1,008

              82

           4,616

           4,477

103.10%

21.84%

Lincoln

           6,727

            113

           2,781

            144

           9,765

           9,434

103.51%

28.48%

Burke

           8,222

            104

           3,674

            142

         12,142

         11,728

103.53%

30.26%

Jackson

           4,342

              75

           2,449

            165

           7,031

           6,737

104.36%

34.83%

Iredell

         10,065

            218

           8,344

            342

         18,969

         18,065

105.00%

43.99%

Anson

           2,374

              46

           3,187

              94

           5,701

           5,413

105.32%

55.90%

Rockingham

           7,567

            222

           6,971

            466

         15,206

         14,430

105.38%

45.84%

Davie

           2,544

              47

           1,804

              76

           4,471

           4,233

105.62%

40.35%

Cabarrus

           9,875

            145

         10,648

            272

         20,940

         19,803

105.74%

50.85%

Edgecombe

           4,074

            110

           9,294

            173

         13,651

         12,877

106.01%

68.08%

Hertford

           1,460

              40

           3,944

            103

           5,547

           5,141

107.90%

71.10%

Wilson

           5,474

            126

           9,556

            217

         15,373

         14,206

108.21%

62.16%

Pitt

         10,214

            201

         16,295

            414

         27,124

         24,924

108.83%

60.08%

Scotland

           2,861

              73

           3,849

            181

           6,964

           6,386

109.05%

55.27%

Warren

           1,684

              68

           3,802

              93

           5,647

           5,171

109.21%

67.33%

Hoke

           2,050

              56

           4,142

              99

           6,347

           5,794

109.54%

65.26%

Cumberland

         16,134

            372

         33,193

            713

         50,412

         45,788

110.10%

65.84%

McDowell

           4,170

              98

           1,487

            125

           5,880

           5,330

110.32%

25.29%

Northampton

           2,116

              61

           3,891

            101

           6,169

           5,584

110.48%

63.07%

Craven

           6,279

            178

           8,671

            367

         15,495

         14,019

110.53%

55.96%

Gaston

         11,980

            175

           9,997

            279

         22,431

         20,254

110.75%

44.57%

Union

         10,090

            118

           9,616

            209

         20,033

         17,974

111.46%

48.00%

Bertie

           1,821

              49

           3,554

              91

           5,515

           4,938

111.68%

64.44%

Brunswick

           9,104

            168

           7,216

            224

         16,712

         14,903

112.14%

43.18%

Cleveland

           8,425

            154

           7,211

            275

         16,065

         14,215

113.01%

44.89%

Pamlico

           1,185

              51

           1,330

              82

           2,648

           2,335

113.40%

50.23%

Rutherford

           5,765

            110

           3,113

            304

           9,312

           8,184

113.78%

33.43%

Halifax

           4,876

            152

           7,878

            212

         13,118

         11,528

113.79%

60.05%

Pender

           3,685

              95

           4,053

            135

           7,968

           6,999

113.84%

50.87%

Haywood

           8,596

            160

           3,769

            416

         12,941

         11,237

115.16%

29.12%

Caswell

           1,868

              84

           3,134

            142

           5,228

           4,539

115.18%