Obama Regains Popular Vote Lead on Surging Turnout in North Carolina and Indiana

Senator Barack Obama regained the popular vote lead in his sea-saw battle with former First Lady Senator Hillary Clinton. After handily winning North Carolina 875,988 (55.99%) to 652,994 (41.74%), and narrowly losing Indiana 629,310 (49.43%) to 643,797 (50.57%) Obama’s margin is now 141,661 out of a grand total of 16,403,787 (48.27%) to Clinton’s 16,262,126 (47.85%).

The big story in the May 6, 2008 primaries, however, is the surging turnout. The 33,984,989 votes cast so far in the Democratic presidential primaries is almost 2/3rds (65.89%) of the 51,576,761 votes cast for John Kerry in the 2004 General Election. After getting off to a roaring start in New Hampshire where the vote was 83.42% of the Kerry vote, the rest of the primaries went from a low of 23.98% in Hawaii to a high of 91.91% in Mississippi. The disputed state of Michigan was second lowest with 23.98% of Kerry’s vote and Florida, with 48.14%, was 9^th from the bottom, ahead of Delaware, Louisiana, Washington, Connecticut, New York, and New Mexico.

The first state to see its total Democratic primary turnout exceed 100% of Kerry’s 2004 vote was Texas with 102.76%. Now, both North Carolina with 102.54% and Indiana with 131.38% have joined Texas. Clearly, the voters in Indiana turned out to save Hillary Clinton’s campaign. In fact, the 1,273,107 Democratic primary votes cast in Indiana comes unbelievably close to the 1,479,438 votes Bush received to decisively beat Kerry in the 2004 General Election.

This is a clear sign that Indiana can be brought into the Democratic column in 2008, for the first time since 1964. The reason for this is the draconian photo voter identification law, recently upheld by the Supreme Court, that disenfranchised scores of people on primary day. While the record turnout belied the predictions of those who claimed the photo identification would discourage people from voting, it also proved beyond a reasonable doubt that the photo ID is a solution in search of a problem. Obviously, there had been little to no vote fraud under the previous system, when voter turnout was quanta lower. In elections where the eligible don’t vote, the ineligible don’t vote, either.

The bad news for Obama in the Indiana returns is that they show that Clinton brought out the voters. In the 12 lowest turnout counties (compared to Kerry’s 2004 vote) was Obama’s strength. In Monroe County, which Obama carried almost 2 to 1 (65.31%), the turnout was only 107% of Kerry’s 2004 vote. In Marion and Lake Counties, which Obama carried 66.91% and 56.49% respectively, the turnout was 112% and 114% of Kerry’s 2004 pace. In St. Joseph County, which Obama carried by 52.5%, turnout was 120% of Kerry’s vote. These four counties combined account for 40% of Obama’s vote in Indiana.

On the other hand, the small counties like Knox, Martin and Clay, which Clinton carried 2 to 1, saw turnout spikes of 171%, 173%, and 181% of Kerry’s 2004 vote. The message could not be clearer. It is not the margin by which Clinton carried Indiana that is significant, it is the fact that she was able to carry it at all. Clearly, only Clinton, with Obama as her running mate, stands a chance of carrying Indiana in the November election. Even worse, it shows that McCain will carry Indiana handily against Obama. According to the election results, rural America is not responding to Barack Obama.

In North Carolina, also, Clinton’s vote rose with turnout. North Carolinians cast 1,564,494 votes in the primary, 2.54%% higher than Kerry’s statewide total of 1,525,849. As in Indiana, Obama did better when the turnout was lower. Of Obama’s 222,994 margin over Clinton, 207,138 came from the 1/3^rd of the counties that had fewer Democratic primary votes than Kerry received in 2004. So, 520,162 (59.36%) of Obama’s vote and 313,024 (47.93%) of Clinton’s vote came from these low turnout counties.

In the 2/3rds of the counties where the Democratic primary vote exceeded Kerry’s 2004 General Election total, Obama received 356,064 to Clinton’s 340,329. In Indiana, all of the counties equaled or exceeded Kerry’s vote. Even though the primary turnout was historically high, the turnout in November will be double, at least.

Much was made before the primary of the fact that Indiana was an open primary, meaning any voter could vote in any primary; while North Carolina was a closed primary. The numbers tell an interesting tale. Even though North Carolina’s primary was closed, its 26.91% turnout in the Democratic primary was higher than Indiana’s 25.51%. So, the greater flexibility offered to voters did not result in a higher turnout.

More amazingly, even though John McCain is considered the presumptive Republican nominee, the Republican primary vote in both Indiana and North Carolina was an almost identical 24.38% and 24.48% respectively of the total primary vote. In other words, the idea that Republican voters in Indiana might be voting in the Democratic primary for tactical reasons to pick a weaker candidate for McCain is completely without foundation. The election returns show that voters take their votes deadly seriously and will only support candidates that they really favor. The electorate takes its votes more seriously than Supreme Court justices.

Indiana 2008 Primary Versus 2004 General Election Analysis

Top of Form County Bottom of Form	Kerry,	Badnarik,	Bush,	Top of Form County Bottom of Form	Hillary Clinton	Barack Obama
	John F. John Edwards	Michael Richard V. Campagna	George Walker Dick Cheney		(Democratic)	(Democratic)
	(Democratic)	(Libertarian)	(Republican)				Total vote	Ratio to Kerry vote	% Obama
Total:	969011	18058	1479438	Total:	643797	629310	1,273,107	1.3138	49.43%	14,487
Ohio	1139	23	1796	Ohio	857	279	1,136	1.00	24.56%
Benton	1135	54	2797	Benton	625	557	1,182	1.04	47.12%
Dearborn	6596	117	14231	Dearborn	5270	1780	7,050	1.07	25.25%
Monroe	26965	449	22834	Monroe	10052	18921	28,973	1.07	65.31%
Wayne	10775	296	16586	Wayne	6997	4814	11,811	1.10	40.76%
Orange	2885	78	5683	Orange	2188	998	3,186	1.10	31.32%
Lake	114743	1376	71903	Lake	56770	73693	130,463	1.14	56.49%
Union	1045	33	2266	Union	803	387	1,190	1.14	32.52%
Warren	1356	39	2565	Warren	915	655	1,570	1.16	41.72%
Marion	162249	2376	156072	Marion	62085	127799	189,884	1.17	67.30%
Newton	2032	55	3757	Newton	1590	847	2,437	1.20	34.76%
St. Joseph	52637	659	55254	St. Joseph	30062	33227	63,289	1.20	52.50%
Randolph	3812	108	7172	Randolph	2846	1748	4,594	1.21	38.05%
Boone	5636	192	17055	Boone	3249	3564	6,813	1.21	52.31%
Jasper	3678	103	8056	Jasper	2913	1539	4,452	1.21	34.57%
Spencer	3920	64	5934	Spencer	2928	1835	4,763	1.22	38.53%
Porter	29388	671	34794	Porter	20759	15001	35,760	1.22	41.95%
Fountain	2477	67	5260	Fountain	1835	1204	3,039	1.23	39.62%
Ripley	3510	90	8224	Ripley	2946	1375	4,321	1.23	31.82%
La Porte	21114	552	20916	La Porte	13624	12537	26,161	1.24	47.92%
Wabash	3920	71	9607	Wabash	2769	2095	4,864	1.24	43.07%
Steuben	4345	104	8433	Steuben	3096	2302	5,398	1.24	42.65%
DeKalb	4810	106	10468	DeKalb	3427	2557	5,984	1.24	42.73%
Starke	3987	100	4846	Starke	3581	1495	5,076	1.27	29.45%
Clinton	3335	71	8471	Clinton	2562	1710	4,272	1.28	40.03%
Franklin	2925	80	6977	Franklin	2594	1182	3,776	1.29	31.30%
Miami	3886	118	9600	Miami	3152	1927	5,079	1.31	37.94%
Lawrence	5346	145	12207	Lawrence	4637	2407	7,044	1.32	34.17%
Switzerland	1479	31	2161	Switzerland	1464	486	1,950	1.32	24.92%
Jefferson	5117	91	7763	Jefferson	4429	2332	6,761	1.32	34.49%
Pulaski	1750	56	3797	Pulaski	1409	911	2,320	1.33	39.27%
Jay	2740	59	5427	Jay	2256	1379	3,635	1.33	37.94%
Marshall	5593	130	12074	Marshall	4267	3157	7,424	1.33	42.52%
Fayette	3626	81	5761	Fayette	3267	1562	4,829	1.33	32.35%
Allen	46710	728	82013	Allen	27493	35041	62,534	1.34	56.04%
Huntington	3877	120	11617	Huntington	2907	2286	5,193	1.34	44.02%
Perry	4131	45	4137	Perry	3612	1986	5,598	1.36	35.48%
Floyd	13857	156	19877	Floyd	12334	6452	18,786	1.36	34.34%
Delaware	20436	407	27064	Delaware	14743	12971	27,714	1.36	46.80%
Carroll	2689	78	5868	Carroll	2033	1625	3,658	1.36	44.42%
Vanderburgh	28767	424	41463	Vanderburgh	20324	19031	39,355	1.37	48.36%
Decatur	2621	78	7499	Decatur	2326	1274	3,600	1.37	35.39%
Madison	21882	444	32526	Madison	16888	13188	30,076	1.37	43.85%
LaGrange	2523	50	6430	LaGrange	1918	1559	3,477	1.38	44.84%
Washington	3879	78	6915	Washington	4019	1330	5,349	1.38	24.86%
Tippecanoe	20818	543	30897	Tippecanoe	11945	17004	28,949	1.39	58.74%
Grant	8509	165	18769	Grant	6362	5494	11,856	1.39	46.34%
Parke	2362	59	4550	Parke	2099	1194	3,293	1.39	36.26%
Bartholomew	9191	207	19093	Bartholomew	6902	5989	12,891	1.40	46.46%
Montgomery	3536	96	10901	Montgomery	2534	2438	4,972	1.41	49.03%
White	3277	96	6974	White	2551	2072	4,623	1.41	44.82%
Fulton	2607	63	6027	Fulton	2164	1523	3,687	1.41	41.31%
Howard	12998	275	23714	Howard	10361	8035	18,396	1.42	43.68%
Henry	7176	176	13137	Henry	6724	3493	10,217	1.42	34.19%
Noble	4703	110	10859	Noble	3974	2750	6,724	1.43	40.90%
Tipton	2203	61	5628	Tipton	1848	1324	3,172	1.44	41.74%
Vermillion	3424	56	3536	Vermillion	3261	1684	4,945	1.44	34.05%
Greene	4606	131	8609	Greene	4326	2343	6,669	1.45	35.13%
Owen	2536	68	5000	Owen	2215	1459	3,674	1.45	39.71%
Whitley	3880	82	9512	Whitley	3336	2286	5,622	1.45	40.66%
Wells	3112	72	9168	Wells	2613	1907	4,520	1.45	42.19%
Kosciusko	5977	243	22136	Kosciusko	4528	4169	8,697	1.46	47.94%
Brown	2730	84	4512	Brown	2009	1991	4,000	1.47	49.78%
Pike	2418	49	3745	Pike	2467	1077	3,544	1.47	30.39%
Hancock	6912	179	20771	Hancock	6105	4065	10,170	1.47	39.97%
Putnam	4103	116	8908	Putnam	3354	2691	6,045	1.47	44.52%
Shelby	4519	111	11397	Shelby	4350	2321	6,671	1.48	34.79%
Daviess	2573	80	7936	Daviess	2291	1554	3,845	1.49	40.42%
Scott	3822	54	4793	Scott	4477	1245	5,722	1.50	21.76%
Cass	4315	127	9480	Cass	3976	2513	6,489	1.50	38.73%
Crawford	1932	33	2609	Crawford	2140	775	2,915	1.51	26.59%
Vigo	18426	307	20988	Vigo	16506	11338	27,844	1.51	40.72%
Warrick	8980	108	16930	Warrick	8080	5500	13,580