Is There Something Rotten In The State Of New Mexico?  Did Governor Bill Richardson Support George W. Bush in 2004?

   It is no secret that Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico has presidential ambitions.  The highest elected Hispanic official in the United States, many knowledgeable observers touted Richardson for Vice-President to run with John Kerry. And if Kerry had chosen Bill Richardson it is more likely that Kerry would have won.

   Once Kerry chose Senator John Edwards, it was pretty obvious that if Kerry won, Richardson would have to wait another eight years, if not more, for another crack at national office.  Maybe Richardson felt it would be in his own personal interest for George W. Bush to win another term, then he would definitely have a shot at national office in just four years.

   In 2000, Al Gore carried New Mexico by the smallest margin of any state that he won.  Gore got 286,738 to Bush's 286,417; a margin of just 321.  In 2004, Bush carried New Mexico by just 6,988;  376,930 to Kerry's 370,942.

    An undervote of about 1% is normal in presidential election.  When the percentage hits 2%, it's time to start looking for mechanical error or fraud.  In 2004, New Mexico had a presidential undervote of 2.45%.  This undervote ranged from a low of 0.26% in Curry County to a high of 8.39% in DeBaca County.  Strangely, the presidential undervote rises from 0.26% to 0.77% over 12 counties, and then jumps to 2.03%. (See chart at the bottom.)

   New Mexico has 33 counties.  The 14 counties with the lowest presidential undervote went for Bush.  Of the 23 counties with the lowest presidential undervote, 19 went for Bush and 4 went for Kerry.  Of the other 10 counties with the highest presidential undervote, 8 went for Kerry and only 2 went for Bush.  The highest county, DeBaca, had just 1084 voters, less than 0.2% of the total vote.

   Perhaps Kerry voters are more incompetent than Bush voters, especially since New Mexico still used old optical scanning equipment in 2004.  A more careful analysis of the undervote in the big counties would be necessary to see if the Bush precincts have consistently lower presidential undervotes than the Kerry precincts.

   But even on the county level, the discrepancy in undervotes was responsible for over 1,000 of Kerry's 7,000 vote deficit in New Mexico.  While this was not enough to cost Kerry the state, and even winning the state would not have won Kerry the election, the high presidential undervote and, more importantly, the wide variation between counties of up to 30 times, shows that New Mexico, like Florida in 2000, needs fixing. 

   Whether the low presidential undervote in the Bush counties compared to the Kerry counties is a sign of deliberate manipulation by the authorities running the election, it is impossible to tell without more investigation.  But the pattern suggests it is not random and that someone may have been trying to skew the New Mexico results to Bush's benefit.  Seeing as Bill Richardson was the Governor of New Mexico during the 2004 presidential election, and seeing as Bill Richardson has presidential ambitions of his own, Bill Richardson is a prime suspect.

New Mexico 2004

County

Registered

Voting

Bush

Kerry

Others

Undervote

Winner

%Underv

%Turnout

Bush%

Kerry %

Bush Loss

K Loss

Curry

21,132

14,323

10,649

3,541

96

-37

B

-0.26%

67.78%

74.3489%

24.7225%

-27.51

-9.15

Roosevelt

11,240

7,163

4,997

2,082

65

-19

B

-0.27%

63.73%

69.7613%

29.0660%

-13.25

-5.52

Quay

5,993

4,129

2,661

1,422

34

-12

B

-0.29%

68.90%

64.4466%

34.4393%

-7.73

-4.13

Losalamos

13,203

11,232

5,810

5,206

181

-35

B

-0.31%

85.07%

51.7272%

46.3497%

-18.10

-16.22

Eddy

26,492

20,340

13,268

6,880

122

-70

B

-0.34%

76.78%

65.2311%

33.8250%

-45.66

-23.68

Luna

11,494

7,625

4,164

3,340

89

-32

B

-0.42%

66.34%

54.6098%

43.8033%

-17.48

-14.02

Valencia

36,447

26,155

14,474

11,270

268

-143

B

-0.55%

71.76%

55.3393%

43.0893%

-79.14

-61.62

Hidalgo

2,984

1,975

1,081

861

22

-11

B

-0.56%

66.19%

54.7342%

43.5949%

-6.02

-4.80

Catron

2,728

2,006

1,427

551

15

-13

B

-0.65%

73.53%

71.1366%

27.4676%

-9.25

-3.57

Union

2,497

1,894

1,454

411

16

-13

B

-0.69%

75.85%

76.7687%

21.7001%

-9.98

-2.82

Lea

26,240

18,317

14,430

3,646

105

-136

B

-0.74%

69.81%

78.7793%

19.9050%

-107.14

-27.07

Harding

783

649

380

259

5

-5

B

-0.77%

82.89%

58.5516%

39.9076%

-2.93

-2.00

San Juan

61,997

45,938

29,525

14,843

638

-932

B

-2.03%

74.10%

64.2714%

32.3109%

-599.01

-301.14

Chaves

33,753

22,156

14,773

6,726

206

-451

B

-2.04%

65.64%

66.6772%

30.3575%

-300.71

-136.91

Bernalillo

345,557

262,617

121,454

132,252

3,105

-5,806

K

-2.21%

76.00%

46.2476%

50.3593%

-2685.13

-2923.86

Santa Fe

90,337

67,782

18,466

47,074

660

-1,582

K

-2.33%

75.03%

27.2432%

69.4491%

-430.99

-1098.69

Sierra

7,474

5,286

3,162

1,926

69

-129

B

-2.44%

70.73%

59.8184%

36.4359%

-77.17

-47.00

Grant

21,862

13,751

6,135

7,095

162

-359

K

-2.61%

62.90%

44.6149%

51.5962%

-160.17

-185.23

Otero

30,068

21,326

14,066

6,433

265

-562

B

-2.64%

70.93%

65.9570%

30.1651%

-370.68

-169.53

Lincoln

12,817

9,273

6,070

2,822

122

-259

B

-2.79%

72.35%

65.4589%

30.4324%

-169.54

-78.82

Dona Ana

95,093

63,777

29,548

31,762

650

-1,817

K

-2.85%

67.07%

46.3302%

49.8017%

-841.82

-904.90

Sandoval

63,954

45,863

22,628

21,421

492

-1,322

B

-2.88%

71.71%

49.3382%

46.7065%

-652.25

-617.46

Torrance

9,174

6,715

4,026

2,386

95

-208

B

-3.10%

73.20%

59.9553%

35.5324%

-124.71

-73.91

Guadalupe

3,658

2,354

914

1,340

13

-87

K

-3.70%

64.35%

38.8275%

56.9244%

-33.78

-49.52

Socorro

12,308

8,158

3,696

4,025

130

-307

K

-3.76%

66.28%

45.3052%

49.3381%

-139.09

-151.47

Rio Arriba

24,119

15,613

5,149

9,753

97

-614

K

-3.93%

64.73%

32.9789%

62.4672%

-202.49

-383.55

Taos

22,373

15,482

3,666

10,987

182

-647

K

-4.18%

69.20%

23.6791%

70.9663%

-153.20

-459.15

Colfax

8,571

6,259

3,082

2,824

62

-291

B

-4.65%

73.03%

49.2411%

45.1190%

-143.29

-131.30

San Miguel

20,957

12,832

3,313

8,683

120

-716

K

-5.58%

61.23%

25.8183%

67.6668%

-184.86

-484.49

Mora

4,348

3,001

928

1,876

22

-175

K

-5.83%

69.02%

30.9230%

62.5125%

-54.12

-109.40

Cibola

14,706

8,003

3,477

3,913

97

-516

K

-6.45%

54.42%

43.4462%

48.8942%

-224.18

-252.29

McCinley

35,532

22,223

7,351

13,051

221

-1,600

K

-7.20%

62.54%

33.0783%

58.7274%

-529.25

-939.64

De Baca

1,519

1,084

706

281

6

-91

B

-8.39%

71.36%

65.1292%

25.9225%

-59.27

-23.59

Total

1,081,410

775,301

376,930

370,942

8,432

-18,997

B

-2.45%

71.69%

48.6172%

47.8449%

-8479.89

-9696.43

 

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf